Email divulgado pelo Wikileaks sobre

a compra dos caças Rafale pelo Brasil

No "post" acima deste transcreve-se artigo publicado no "videversus" entitulado "Empresa de inteligência dos Estados Unidos sugere que Lula recebeu propina por caças franceses Rafale", que se reporta ao Wikileaks.

Aqui está o original, como foi publicado pelo Wikileaks.


Re: INSIGHT - BRAZIL - On military purchases

Email-ID	971109
Date	2010-10-18 17:14:03
From	hughes@stratfor.com
To	marko.papic@stratfor.com, secure@stratfor.com

there was a lengthy Economist article just recently about how a German industrial giant (maybe Siemens) had really turned around after years of corrupt practices. It is one thing to make it illegal, it is another to actually clean house and end the practices. So the French may be further behind the curve on the latter -- also, they're getting desperate on the Rafale, since they're going to have to start shutting down the line eventually...

On 10/18/2010 11:08 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

PUBLICATION: If needed

SOURCE: US505

ATTRIBUTION: U.S. officials in Brazil 

SOURCE DESCRIPTION: FSO stationed in Rio, in charge of econ cooperation
SOURCE Reliability : A

ITEM CREDIBILITY:

DISTRIBUTION: Secure

SPECIAL HANDLING: Marko

Asked a good source of mine in Rio what he thought about our internal discussion on Brazil and its military purchases. This was a phone conversation from Sunday, so I am going from memory on a lot of this. This was his answer: 

You are correct to be asking yourself what in God's name Brasilia is doing. Look, Brazilian navy is shit. It is a joke, and I would know because I talk to our military personnel at the consulate all the time about this. That they went for nuclear subs makes no sense. In fact, the fact they want the Rafale's and Gripen's is a joke too. The F-18 is the best piece of hardware. We even gave them as much tech transfer as we give anyone, short of the Israelis. We literally gave them a package that said "you get everything, shade under the Israeli deal." It is a great deal and anyone would love to have it. Instead they're looking at the Rafale, which is overpriced even with price cuts, and the Gripen which is just shit. You purchase Gripen's if you're Slovakia.

Our thinking, and we are pretty unified on this view, here at the Consulate and in the wider diplo community is that there are some serious kick backs going on. Brazil is an astonishingly corrupt country. However, our Treasury Department forbids us to pad their wallets the way the French can. That really is it. Remember that deal in Pakistan that led to the deaths of a bunch of French officials? Guess what that was about? Sale of three French submarines for $1 billion. The French supposedly had a kick back deal with Pakistan, which is why Pakistan bought the subs in the first place. [MP: later the French reneged on paying the kickback, which -- the theory goes -- resulted in the deaths of French engineers in 2002].

I can't prove anything, and don't quote me on this, but the purchase of the submarines is so singularly stupid that it has to be part of some kickbacks. Lula is probably looking for retirement money. And look, the purchase came interestingly close to the end of his term. Same with the jets. Our Treasury Department is really vindictive on bribes. We can't do any real business because of it in a corrupt place like Brazil. The French have no such problems [MP: not saying I disagree, but I believe the French have also made bribing illegal].

So I am sorry that I can't give you some grand explanation that talks of Brazil's grand strategy. It is our assessment that this is purely about bribes and the French using strategies they have applied in the past here in Brazil. The only difference is that Brazil now has money, lots of it, so it can do this stuff. I mean is it a coincidence that they are buying so much French stuff? 

The French know how to bribe. 

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Marko Papic

Geopol Analyst – Eurasia

STRATFOR
700 Lavaca Street – 900

Austin, Texas 78701 USA

P: + 1-512-744-4094

marko.papic@stratfor.com